04Growth · testing
Experiments
Every bet we're running, read honestly — the overlap is the answer, and the uncertainty is on the chart.
Will we hit the Q4 target?Target $780k MRR
The median projection lands just above target, but the 80% band still straddles it — we clear Q4 only if expansion holds. Not a lock.
§ 01
Running experiments
Control vs. variant · distribution, not a single numberGuided onboarding checklist
A step-by-step checklist lifts activation.
Sticky upgrade nudge
An in-app nudge lifts trial→paid conversion.
Simplified pricing page
Fewer plans reduce checkout drop-off.
§ 02
Ship decision
The perf fix, and the odds it's realPage load timeBefore vs. after the fix · ms
The whole distribution moved left — a ~820ms median shift, not a mean nudged by outliers. That's a real win.
Activation upliftPosterior · will it beat zero?
Count the dots past zero: roughly 19 in 20 draws show a positive uplift. Strong evidence to ship.